Why Freight Rates Are Expected to Remain Elevated Through the Second Half of 2026

After nearly four years of challenging conditions for carriers, the transportation market has shifted. Capacity is tightening, demand remains steady, and freight rates continue to trend upward across much of the country.

Many industry experts believe transportation costs will remain elevated throughout the remainder of 2026.

Understanding the factors driving today's freight market can help shippers better prepare their supply chains and transportation budgets.

Capacity Continues to Exit the Market

One of the biggest drivers of rising transportation rates is the reduction in available truck capacity.

During the prolonged freight recession, many small carriers and owner operators exited the industry due to rising operating costs and lower freight rates. As demand has improved, the available supply of trucks has not recovered at the same pace.

When capacity becomes limited, rates naturally increase.

Seasonal Produce Demand Is Creating Additional Pressure

Every summer, produce season places significant demand on refrigerated and dry van capacity.

Watermelons, onions, blueberries, apples, vegetables, and other seasonal commodities require thousands of trucks throughout the growing season. As equipment shifts into produce regions, capacity tightens in other areas of the country.

This seasonal demand often creates rate volatility and longer lead times for shippers.

Regulatory Events Impact Capacity

Events such as the CVSA International Road check and Operation Safe Driver Week can temporarily reduce available capacity.

During these enforcement periods, increased inspections and safety checks often cause carriers to become more selective with freight and operating schedules. As available trucks decrease, spot market rates can rise quickly.

Shippers that plan ahead typically experience fewer disruptions during these events.

What Shippers Should Expect

As we move through the second half of 2026, shippers should expect:

• Higher transportation costs

• Tighter truck capacity

• Increased spot market volatility

• Longer lead times during produce season

• Greater importance placed on carrier relationships

The companies that communicate forecasts early and maintain strong transportation partnerships will be best positioned to navigate market changes.

How Lighthouse Transportation Services Can Help

At Lighthouse Transportation Services, we help customers manage transportation costs while maintaining reliable service. Our team provides truckload shipping, refrigerated transportation, flatbed services, power only solutions, and supply chain visibility throughout North America.

Whether you need assistance with daily shipments, dedicated capacity, or transportation management, our team is committed to helping you move freight efficiently and effectively.

Contact Lighthouse Transportation Services today to discuss your transportation needs and learn how we can support your supply chain in today's evolving freight market.